Back in mid-October, I made a few observations about successful HSC results over the past 13 years, and noted how certain demographics seemed to make regular appearances in certain subjects, despite the
marking process being one of relative anonymity with all students assigned an
arbitrary ID number for a fair marking process.
Among these observations were the following key comments:
-
Out of around 800 high schools spread across 809,000km² of New South Wales, 47 out
of the 50 top performing schools in 2013 all came from within a 3,000km² area of urban Sydney.
-
Despite 5% of Australia’s population being
Indigenous and <4% of Australia’s population being of Chinese heritage, Indigenous
students rarely appear at all in lists of academic distinction, whereas Chinese
students appear in the Distinguished Achievers disproportionately higher compared
to all other demographics that take up a similar percentage of the Australian
population.
-
There are certain subjects each year which display
a notable gender dominance in First In Course results, both involving vast disparity in enrolment and relatively equal enrolment.
-
The Top 7 high schools of 2013 were all selective
government schools with a non-English speaking (predominantly Chinese) population
of 97%, 94%, 88%, 90%, 90%, 82% and 90% respectively.
-
Rich private schools around the inner city with predominantly
Catholic and South African/Jewish populations also perform consistently well in
HSC results. A high ICSEA rating (around the 1200 mark) tends to link with highest
scoring results.
-
A smaller though noteworthy number of schools
with high Indian attendance also perform well in the HSC, despite Australia’s
Indian population being significantly smaller than our Italian, Greek, Arabic, Serbian,
French, Spanish, German, Macedonian, Croatian, Polish and Turkish-speaking populations.
-
Girls and Asians generally dominate HSC results.
(The Daily Telegraph seems to have published very similarly-themed articles over the past week, and considering my previous blog was a primary Google result when searching 'Asians HSC' or 'Girls HSC' I can't help but wonder...)
(The Daily Telegraph seems to have published very similarly-themed articles over the past week, and considering my previous blog was a primary Google result when searching 'Asians HSC' or 'Girls HSC' I can't help but wonder...)
For 2014, the trends stayed generally the same, with 67 girls attaining First In Course wins compared to 38 boys, continuing the academic dominance of girls in recent years. With apparently 75,000 students enrolled in HSC subjects this year (I assume accelerated single-subject Year 11 students were also counted) it was a very large playing field indeed.
Below are some of my more successful 2014 predictions for a number of subjects, based on their general trends over the past 14 years:
DANCE
My prediction: Never, ever ever, a boy or an ethnic.
2014 Winners: Three different White girls.
DRAMA
My prediction: A White girl from the Northern Beaches named Amelia.
2014 Winner: A White girl from Byron Bay named Annabelle.
FOOD TECHNOLOGY
My prediction: Never, ever ever a boy.
My prediction: Never, ever ever a boy.
Girls have won 13/13 years despite 25-33% of enrolments being boys.
2014 Winner: A girl.
2014 Winner: A girl.
PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT, HEALTH AND PHYSICAL EDUCATION
My prediction: A White girl from a rural school.
My prediction: A White girl from a rural school.
Twice as many boys take PDHPE than girls but 12/13 wins have been girls.
2014 Winner: A White girl from Parramatta.
2014 Winner: A White girl from Parramatta.
TEXTILES & DESIGN
My prediction: Never, ever ever, a boy.2014 Winner: A girl.
My prediction: Never, ever ever, a boy.2014 Winner: A girl.
ENGLISH ADVANCED
My prediction: With 30,000+ students of all demographics, I lean slightly towards a girl, and a 1-in-a-thousand crack at Pymble.
2014 Winner: A girl from North Sydney Girls High School.
My prediction: With 30,000+ students of all demographics, I lean slightly towards a girl, and a 1-in-a-thousand crack at Pymble.
2014 Winner: A girl from North Sydney Girls High School.
MODERN GREEK BEGINNERS, CONTINUERS AND EXTENSION
My prediction: Wogs.
My prediction: Wogs.
Every single surname will contain either Z, V, K or OU and end in S, I guarantee it.
2014 Winners: Doulakis, Kefalas and Vallis.
2014 Winners: Doulakis, Kefalas and Vallis.
ENGINEERING
My prediction: Never, ever ever, a girl. IT WILL BE A BOY.
2014 Winner: A boy.
My prediction: Never, ever ever, a girl. IT WILL BE A BOY.
2014 Winner: A boy.
SOFTWARE DESIGN & DEVELOPMENT
My prediction: A White boy from Moriah College. Almost 94% enrolment in SD&D is male.
2014 Winner: A White boy from Normanhurst Boys High School.
My prediction: A White boy from Moriah College. Almost 94% enrolment in SD&D is male.
2014 Winner: A White boy from Normanhurst Boys High School.
LEGAL STUDIES:
My prediction: A random name from a school you've never heard of before.
2014 Winner: Spiros Kalavritinos from Georges River College Oatley Senior Campus.
My prediction: A random name from a school you've never heard of before.
2014 Winner: Spiros Kalavritinos from Georges River College Oatley Senior Campus.
MUSIC EXTENSION 1
My prediction: A White boy from a random bogan school.
2014 Winner: A White boy from a random bogan school in Ballina.
My prediction: A White boy from a random bogan school.
2014 Winner: A White boy from a random bogan school in Ballina.
SOCIETY AND CULTURE
My prediction: An Eastern European girl.
My prediction: An Eastern European girl.
Damned if she doesn't have a Croatian/Serbian/Czech/Russian sounding surname.
2014 Winner: A girl with a Portuguese surname.
2014 Winner: A girl with a Portuguese surname.
GERMAN BEGINNERS, CONTINUERS AND EXTENSION
My prediction: Eastern European Whites all around.
2014 Winners: A White girl for Beginners.
An Eastern European White boy for Continuers and Extension.
My prediction: Eastern European Whites all around.
2014 Winners: A White girl for Beginners.
An Eastern European White boy for Continuers and Extension.
PERSIAN STUDIES
My prediction: [comment amended in sensitivity of recent events in Sydney] A convoluted Arabic surname like Valizadeh Baghjeghaz, Arjomand Bigdeli, Vafaeiafraz or Darvishzadehzolpirani.
My prediction: [comment amended in sensitivity of recent events in Sydney] A convoluted Arabic surname like Valizadeh Baghjeghaz, Arjomand Bigdeli, Vafaeiafraz or Darvishzadehzolpirani.
2014 Winner: Mohtasham Ansari
AGRICULTURE
My prediction: A Chinese girl from James Ruse Agricultural High School.
2014 Winner: A Chinese boy from Hurlstone Agricultural High School.
MATHEMATICS, EXTENSION 1 AND EXTENSION 2
AGRICULTURE
My prediction: A Chinese girl from James Ruse Agricultural High School.
2014 Winner: A Chinese boy from Hurlstone Agricultural High School.
MATHEMATICS, EXTENSION 1 AND EXTENSION 2
My prediction: Chinese students from James Ruse with a White first name and ridiculously Asian surname, or a A White boy from Sydney Grammar.
2014 Winners: Paul Yu for Mathematics, Michael Sun from James Ruse for Extension 2.
BIOLOGYMy prediction: Abbotsleigh has beaten James Ruse for Biology 4:3 so I say Abbotsleigh.
2014 Winner: James Ruse.
ANCIENT HISTORY, MODERN HISTORY, EXTENSION
My predictions: A White boy from a private Sydney Catholic school for Ancient.
Either a White girl from North Shore or Chinese girl from a Girls’ School for Modern.
A White girl from a random rural school for Extension.
2014 Winners: A White girl from a random rural school for Ancient History.
A White boy from a private Sydney school for Modern.
A Chinese girl from a Girls’ School for Extension.
JAPANESE BEGINNERS
My prediction: A Vietnamese or South Korean girl at a Western Sydney school.
2014 Winner: A Filipino girl at a Western Sydney school.
As you can see towards the end there, my predictions became a little less accurate... and the numerous *omitted* predictions from hereon would display that several past trends were wildly overthrown, such as the first male Visual Arts win in a decade and the notable spike in Indian names this year.
Speculative jokes can only go so far and attempting demographic pigeonholing based on gender, race and socioeconomic location is evidently a flawed exercise.
Best of luck with your tertiary pursuits, students!
2014 Winners: Paul Yu for Mathematics, Michael Sun from James Ruse for Extension 2.
BIOLOGYMy prediction: Abbotsleigh has beaten James Ruse for Biology 4:3 so I say Abbotsleigh.
2014 Winner: James Ruse.
ANCIENT HISTORY, MODERN HISTORY, EXTENSION
My predictions: A White boy from a private Sydney Catholic school for Ancient.
Either a White girl from North Shore or Chinese girl from a Girls’ School for Modern.
A White girl from a random rural school for Extension.
2014 Winners: A White girl from a random rural school for Ancient History.
A White boy from a private Sydney school for Modern.
A Chinese girl from a Girls’ School for Extension.
JAPANESE BEGINNERS
My prediction: A Vietnamese or South Korean girl at a Western Sydney school.
2014 Winner: A Filipino girl at a Western Sydney school.
Two White boys clocked up 9 First In Course wins between them this year.
What they lack in number, they make up for in efficiency.
What they lack in number, they make up for in efficiency.
As you can see towards the end there, my predictions became a little less accurate... and the numerous *omitted* predictions from hereon would display that several past trends were wildly overthrown, such as the first male Visual Arts win in a decade and the notable spike in Indian names this year.
Speculative jokes can only go so far and attempting demographic pigeonholing based on gender, race and socioeconomic location is evidently a flawed exercise.
Best of luck with your tertiary pursuits, students!
